Using different words, national and state economists offered the same message Thursday in delivering the 2010 Economic Report to the Governor.
“A theme of emerging recovery” is how Juliette Tennert, chief economist in the Governor’s Office of Planning & Budget, characterized conditions in Utah.
Nationally, “the worst is over. We’ve hit bottom,” echoed David Wyss, chief economist for Standard & Poor’s, a 150-year-old financial-services company whose stock, bond and credit ratings are watched closely by the business community.
“We’re at the stage of the cycle where things are not getting worse,” he added, cautioning that there will be a slow recovery from “a terrible recession that could have been a lot worse. … But half a recovery is better than none. You take what you can get.”
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In 2009, the U.S. media were finally forced to start comparing the current, U.S. economic collapse with the “Great Depression” of the 1930’s, simply because there were no other historical precedents remotely comparable to the current meltdown.
Byron Wien is out with his list of 10 surprises that could move markets this year. The annual list has become well known because of some good calls Wien has made in the past, although the list is published with the idea that many of the surprises will not come to pass. Last, year, however, he was very prescient, making accurate calls on gold, stocks, the savings rate and the housing plunge.
The U.S. dollar has fallen in value vs. most other currencies for most of the last nine months and is now flirting with multi-year lows. More U.S. dollar weakness should be expected but not necessarily feared. Contrary to many proclamations from official and private sources, a “strong” dollar is not necessarily in the U.S. or collective global economic interest. Attempts to prevent a continued orderly dollar decline may further perpetuate global imbalances, slow U.S. economic recovery and prevent a stabilization in the U.S. debt dynamic that is badly needed.