EconomicCrisis.US

We’ve always been impressed by David Einhorn, the young manager of Greenlight Capital. Einhorn made our Ten To Watch list this past August for his prescient shorting and outspokenness about the shenanigans going on at Lehman. (His fund had been up by more than 20 percent in the first half of this year, fueled by his bearish bets; he had almost no long positions. Wonder how he is faring these days.)

In a speech to the Value Investing Congress yesterday (the speech was called, “Liquor Before Beer, in the Clear”), he paints a dim view of our financial system and the government’s role of enabler. Einhorn didn’t use the word bankruptcy, but he thinks the stimulus package is a “black hole” that, in the long run, will not produce long-term economic value. It’s all short-termism, so that elected officials can say they are doing something—and seek reelection.
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The financial crisis taught us that markets can drop further and faster than anyone expects. Housing prices, for example, fell for three straight years starting in 2006, even though the conventional wisdom right up until the bust began was that prices would not fall even a little bit.

Let’s apply some of our hard-won knowledge to the dollar, which is also supposed to be resistant to a bust. After weakening gradually since 2002, the greenback rose during the financial crisis last year. It has fallen roughly 15% since March as investors moved to higher-yielding currencies. The conventional wisdom is that at these levels the dollar is cheap and, if anything, due for a rebound. “Currencies don’t go much more than 20% from their long-term averages in real [inflation-adjusted] terms. We’re there already,” says Michael Dooley, an economist who is co-founder and research chief of Cabezon Capital Management, a San Francisco investment firm.
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The Obama administration scored its first financial regulation reform victory in months on Thursday when a U.S. congressional committee approved new rules for over-the-counter derivatives.

In a 43-26 decision, the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee voted in favor of slapping new rules on the largely unpoliced $450-trillion OTC derivatives market, widely blamed for amplifying last year’s financial crisis.

The committee’s bill strives to balance a desire to curb speculative market excess with preserving the market’s useful role in helping corporations hedge against operational risks.
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The half-decade before the financial crisis was a go-go time for the global economy. Consumption reached unprecedented heights; so did oil prices and shipping rates. And that frantic buying and selling was a boon for manufacturing. As U.S. consumers flexed their credit cards for flat-panel TVs and video games, factories sprouted around the world to make all the stuff that was crammed into consumers’ SUVs. But amid the recession, spending has shrunk dramatically, as debt-laden U.S. consumers are learning to save — and those factories have a lot less to do. During the downturn, the rates at which industrial capacity was being utilized in the U.S. and Japan, the world’s two largest economies, plummeted to the lowest levels on record. In China, the world’s workshop, tens of thousands of factories making mostly low-end merchandise have shut down.
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