Toyota Motor Corp., Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler Group LLC posted November U.S. auto sales that beat analysts’ estimates as the economy stabilized and shoppers began trickling back to showrooms.
Toyota, the world’s largest automaker, reported a 2.6 percent increase last month, while deliveries for Dearborn, Michigan-based Ford were little changed and Chrysler said sales slid 25 percent. Nissan Motor Co. also topped estimates.
The results suggested improvements for automakers battered by the deepest economic slump since the Great Depression and bankruptcies for Chrysler and General Motors Co. U.S. auto sales may have run at a faster pace in November from a year earlier for just the second month in 2009.
“The industry is starting to make some strides,” said Michael Robinet, analyst with CSM Worldwide Inc. in Northville, Michigan. Automakers are at a “turning point” as they focus on ensuring profitable sales, not just higher volumes, he said.
November’s seasonally adjusted annual rate will be 10.5 million light vehicles, the average estimate of 7 analysts in a Bloomberg survey. That would be up from 10.17 million in November 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Manufacturers, suppliers and dealers use the rate to compare monthly totals by accounting for seasonal patterns. U.S. sales were 13.2 million in 2008, after averaging 16.8 million this decade through 2007. August’s 14.09 million was 2009’s highest rate, and the lowest was February’s 9.11 million.
Estimate for GM
GM, the biggest U.S. automaker, may say its sales rose 5.8 percent, based on the average estimates of 5 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
The estimates are adjusted for last month having 23 sales days, 2 fewer than in November 2008. Some automakers report adjusted figures, which would be about 8 percentage points higher than the unadjusted numbers used by Bloomberg.
Ford was predicted to increase 4.1 percent, adjusted for sales days. On that basis, its sales rose 8.7 percent. The analysts expected a 27 percent drop for adjusted sales at Auburn Hills, Michigan-based Chrysler, so its 19 percent decline on that basis also beat estimates.
Toyota’s adjusted sales gain was 12 percent, exceeding the 4.5 percent average increase based on two analysts’ estimates. Nissan’s 41 percent jump on an adjusted basis topped an 8.5 percent estimate.
“It appears the economy and auto sales have stabilized and the worst is behind us,” Ken Czubay, Ford’s U.S. sales chief, said on a conference call.
Ford said first-quarter North American production will increase 58 percent from a year earlier to 550,000 vehicles.
Unit Sales
U.S. sales for Ford including the Volvo brand were 123,167, compared with 123,222 a year earlier, the automaker said today in a statement. Chrysler said its sales totaled 63,560 vehicles, while Toyota City, Japan-based Toyota reported 133,700 U.S. deliveries. Nissan, based in Yokohama, Japan, said sales rose 30 percent to 50,644.
Honda Motor Co.’s November sales probably rose less than 1 percent, based on the averages of two estimates.
Hyundai Motor Co., South Korea’s largest automaker, said sales rose 46 percent to 28,045. U.S. sales for Daimler AG’s Mercedes-Benz and Smart brands rose 9.1 percent to 17,446, the Stuttgart, Germany-based company said.
Consumers may be responding to signs of an improving economy. Business activity unexpectedly accelerated in November as orders climbed, the Institute for Supply Management said yesterday. Existing-home sales increased in October for the ninth straight month, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Automakers probably benefited from the comparison with November 2008, when the sales rate was the lowest last year. During that month, U.S. companies cut 533,000 jobs, and GM and Chrysler said they would run short of cash without government aid.
An industry sales increase would be the first of 2009 without help from federal incentives. The U.S. Transportation Department’s “cash for clunkers” program offered as much as $4,500 for buyers to trade in older, less fuel-efficient cars from July 27 to Aug. 24.
By Mike Ramsey and Alex Ortolani – bloomberg.com
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